哈尔滨市气象灾害发生规律及风险评估

Occurrence and Risk Assessment of Meteorological Disaster in Harbin

利用哈尔滨市气象站1971—2005年夏季气温、降水和雷暴资料,运用指标模型及信息扩散理论对哈尔滨市低温冷害、旱涝灾害及雷暴天气进行了规律分析和风险评估。研究结果表明:哈尔滨市发生低温冷害的机率较大,但发生次数及频率在总体上则呈下降趋势;哈尔滨地区是旱涝灾害的多发地区,但是从整体来看强度不大,35年来的发生频率都在65%以上,少有强灾害发生;哈尔滨市35年来年平均雷暴日数约为33.54天,全年雷暴日数超过50天的强灾年只有一年,雷暴灾害主要集中在6、7、8月。通过对气象灾害的风险评估,哈尔滨市主要气象灾害中,旱涝灾害的发生风险是最高的,其次是低温冷害。

This paper did research of occurrence and risk assessment of meteorological disaster in Harbin by using index sign model and information diffusion theory with 35 years summer temperature, rainfall and thunderstorms data of Harbin meteorological station from 1971 to 2005. The results show that： The probability of occurrence of low temperature and cold damage is big, but the frequency generally goes down; arid disaster and flood disaster occurs frequently in Harbin region, the strength is not strong on the whole; occurrence frequency of arid and flood disaster all have been above 65% in the past 35 years, but strong disaster is little; the average number of days of thunderstorms is 33.54d with the last 35 years of Harbin, only one year is strong disaster year with the number of days is more than 50d,the thunderstorms occur mainly at June, July and August. In the main meteorological disaster of Harbin, the probability of arid and flood disaster is the highest, followed by the low temperature and cold damage.