当前煤炭产需失衡状况分析预测

An analysis of the present imbalanced coal production and demands and its prediction

从产需两方面分析了煤炭市场持续疲软的原因，认为煤炭生产总量过多和煤炭需求不旺是煤炭产需失衡的影响因素，需求不旺是主要原因。预测了近斯煤炭产需基本走势，估计全年原煤产量不会超过12亿t，商品煤销量小于11．5亿t，煤炭社会库存仍将维持在2亿t的水平。

From the angle of production and demands, this article analyzes the main reasons for the lasting stagnation of coal market. It is considered that the over-production and stagnant coal demands are important factors for the imbalanced coal production and coal demands, and the stagnant demands being the main reason. On the basis of a prediction about the short term coal demand trend, the article presents the estimation that the national raw coal production will not be higher than 1. 2 billion tons, sales of saleable coal will be no larger than 1. icbillim tons and coal stocks in the society will still be maintained at around 200 million tons.