煤与瓦斯突出的预测模型及预测指标

Forecast Model and Indexes of Coal and Gas Outburst

用煤与瓦斯突出的球壳失稳理论分析了影响煤层突出危险性的因素，提出了“理想石门揭煤”的预测模式，研究了这种预测模式的预测指标．实验证明，采用初始释放瓦斯膨胀能和软煤厚度可以准确地预测理想石门揭煤条件下的突出危险性．

The factors influencing the outburst of coal seam are analysed based on “spherical shell losing stability” mechanism of coal and gas outburst. The outburst forecast model of “uncovering ideal crosscut” is put forward and its forecast indexes are studied. It is proved by experiments that the expansion energy of initial releasing gas and the thickness of soft coal seam can be used to forecast outburst accurately under the condition of “uncovering ideal crosscut”.