人民币汇率走势的综合因素分析

Combination Factors Analysis of the RMB Exchange Rate Trend

中国改革开放后,对外贸易的交往过程中,起直接杠杆作用的就是汇率的走势。人民币实际上更应该通过影响因素的解读来对未来的汇率波动进行刻画。通过分析发现,购买力平价理论是汇率决定理论的基础,时间序列回归法更有利于短期的衡量,结构性模型则更适合长期均衡汇率的表达。所以,人民币实际汇率在相对短的时期内将处于升值的态势,而名义汇率则依赖于通货膨胀的状况。

Among China＇s reform and opening up of foreign trade dealings,the direct leverage is the exchange rate movements trend.In fact,RMB should analyze the future exchange rate fluctuations through the analysis of influential factors.The analysis revealed that the purchasing power parity theory is the basis of exchange rate determination theory,time series regression method is more conducive to short-term measure and the structural model is more suitable for the expression of long-run equilibrium exchange rate.Therefore,the RMB real exchange rate will be in the appreciation of the situation in a relatively short period of time,while the nominal exchange rate depends on the situation of flections.