过剩产能与通货膨胀的关系分析——基于包含随机波动的TVP模型考察

The Relationship between Excess Capacity and Inflation:An Analysis Based on TVP Model Including Stochastic Volatility

为了更准确的考察目前中国的过剩产能与通货膨胀的关系,本文构造了一个包含随机波动的TVP模型对中国通货膨胀与产出缺口间的关系进行了实证分析,实证结果表明:中国通货膨胀的随机波动程度有不断增强的趋势;产出缺口对通货膨胀的影响力度有不断减弱的趋势;改善经济发展的结构性矛盾、提高供给部门的效率是实现价格稳定下经济快速增长的根本途径。

In order to more accurately study the relationship between current excess capacity and inflation,this paper utilizes a TVP model including stochastic volatility in the empirical research.The result shows that the degree of stochastic volatility in inflation has the trend to increase,while the effect of output-gap on inflation has the trend to decrease.Improving the structural contradictions in economic development and increasing the efficiency of the supply sector are the fundamental ways to achieve price stability and rapid growth.