摘要
针对实现降雨数值格点预报与洪水预报的耦合为延长洪水预见期的有效手段及降雨数值格点预报与实际降雨情况存在的偏差,采用误差外推法考虑格点预报误差的影响,并提出了利用实测雨量站(校正参照量)所在格点的降雨信息及绝对误差校正其他格点降雨数值方法,无需将校正参照量插值于每一个格点,避免了不准确插值的影响,使降雨格点预报的整体偏差获得修正的同时,降雨空间分布亦得到很好的保持。以潘家口水库以上流域为例,检验结果表明,该方法取得了较好的效果。
It is one of the effective measure to extend the forecast period by coupling the rainfall numerical grid forecasting and flood forecasting, But the rainfall numerical grid forecasting is the mid-short term product and there is considerable deviation between the forecasting result and the actual rainfall. A correction method is presented to correct the other grid rainfall amount by the rainfall information and absolute error in the observatory rainfall station, The correct reference data are not need to interpolate in every grids thus avoids the influence of incorrect interpolation. The rainfall space distribution keep well with the correction of the whole deviation of rainfall grid forecasting. The method is tested in upstream basin of the Panjiakou reservoir and the result is good.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2010年第4期1-4,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50479017)
淮河流域气象开放研究基金资助项目(HRM200708)
教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划基金资助项目(IRT0717)
关键词
降雨格点预报
校正方法
目标分析法
误差外推
洪水预报
rainfall grid forecasting
corrected method
target analysis method
deviation extrapolation
flood forecasting
