摘要
基于三峡水库对鄱阳湖环湖区水文情势变化的重要影响,并针对鄱阳湖环湖区水生态环境为江西省经济发展的重要保障和支持,采用适合小样本训练的支持向量机(SVM)模型预测了鄱阳湖环湖区未来规划年的需水量,分别从核函数的选择、模型参数观察了误差曲线变化,最终寻求了适合本地区的SVM模型。预测结果表明,该模型可正确预测鄱阳湖环湖区的需水趋势,为实现该区的经济社会可持续性发展奠定了基础。
According to the influence of Three Gorges Reservoir on change of hydrologic regime in Poyang Lake area and its water ecological environment guarantee and support of economic development for Jiangxi Province, water demand of Poyang Lake area in future planning year is forecasted by support vector machine model, which is fit for small sample training. Variation of error curve is analyzed by choice of kernel function and model parameter. Finally the suitable support vector machines model for this area is obtained. The result shows that the proposed model can correctly forecast the water demand tendency of the Poyang Lake area, which lays the foundation for sustainable economics and society development in this area.
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2010年第4期22-23,55,共3页
Water Resources and Power
基金
水利部公益性行业科研专项基金资助项目(2008502712)
关键词
鄱阳湖
需水预测
支持向量机
小样本
模型
Poyang Lake
water demand forecasting
support vector machine
small sample
model
