干旱指标在陕西省适用性研究

Applicability of drought indices in Shaanxi Province

选取陕西地区1951-1999年间发生的442个典型干旱个例作为代表,根据全省96个气象台站的气象观测资料,计算降水距平百分率等6个气象干旱指标的干旱等级,并与实际干旱灾情进行对比分析,判断干旱指标适用与否。另外,在对每个干旱指标本地化适用性分析基础上,又对所有指标在陕西适用性进行了对比分析,统计每个指标在陕西不同区域、不同季节的适用频率,选取适用频率最高的1个（或多个）指标作为该区域、该季节最佳指标,从而建立一套适合陕西的分区域、分季节干旱指标体系;最后选用2000-2005年发生在陕西的48个干旱独立样本对干旱指标体系进行检验。结果表明：本研究所建立的干旱指标体系在陕西不同区域、不同季节具有较好的适用性,该指标体系将为陕西干旱监测预警评估业务平台的建立提供可靠的技术支撑。

In this paper,selected areas in Shaanxi Province in 1951～1999 between the 442 cases as a typical representative of a drought,according to 96 meteorological stations data,by calculating the percentage anomaly precipitation six drought indexes,such as grading and drought disaster and the actual conduct comparative analysis,the results as an indicator whether or not the basis for the application.In the localization of each indicator on the basis of analysis of the applicability,but also all the indicators in Shaanxi applicability of a comparative analysis,statistical indicators in each of the different regions of Shaanxi,the frequency of application of different seasons,to select one of the highest frequency（or Many） as indicators of the region,the best indicator of the season,thus establishing a set of Shaanxi suitable for the actual sub-regional,sub-season drought index system;Through 2000～2005 occurred in the selection of Shaanxi＇s 48 independent samples of the drought index system can be tested,the results show that： the establishment of the drought index system in different regions of Shaanxi,in different seasons has good applicability,the index system for Shaanxi drought monitoring and early warning assessment of the business establishment of the platform provides a reliable technical support.