中国大陆地区外贸失衡与地区差距的关联与机理

CONNECTION AND MECHANISM BETWEEN FOREIGN TRADE DIFFERENCE AND REGIONAL DISPARITY IN CHINESE MAINLAND

根据因子分析法和聚类分析法对经济发展与对外贸易的综合评价表明,中国大陆地区对外贸易水平与经济发展水平存在地区差异。以中国大陆1985—2006年间28省份的人均GDP、进出口总额和出口总额三者的变异系数为样本空间进行的VECM模型检验发现,地区外贸差异与经济差距间存在长期均衡关系,对外贸易差异是地区差距的格兰杰成因。总的来说,对外贸易差异主要通过要素收益变化与要素流动制约性、技术溢出与要素收益变化、要素积累与要素收益变化、制度创新与制度变迁4个方面对地区差距的变化产生影响。

The synthetic evaluation based on the Exploratory Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis indicated that foreign trade development and regional development in Chinese mainland present unbalanced situation. According to VEC model checking result based on variation coefficient of average GDP per capita, total trade value and export value which 28 provinces＇ data in1985--2006 are used, there exists long-term equilibrium between regional disparity and regional foreign trade difference, furthermore, foreign trade difference is .Granger Cause of regional disparity. Through the academic analysis, four kinds of mechanism conduct the affiliation between foreign trade and regional disparity, which includes： factor fluxion and factor earnings transformation, technical overflow and factor earnings transformation ,factor accumulation and factor earnings transformation, institutional innovation and institutional transformation.