基于旅游本底线法(TBCM)的旅游业成长研究——以桂林入境旅游为例

ON THE GROWTH OF TOURISM INDUSTRY BASED ON TBCM-A CASE STUDY OF INBOUND TOURISM IN GUILIN

以典型旅游城市桂林为样本城市,利用本底线法分析其入境旅游成长过程及其内在发展规律,并运用相关非线性理论探讨其成长模式和演进路径。这些特征规律的探讨无论对桂林旅游发展规划的制订,还是对旅游产业宏观政策的制定都具参考价值。通过上述研究得到以下发现:①桂林自1973年对外开放以来,入境旅游事业经历了30多年的发展,呈现了明显的非线性增长趋势与周期波动。②桂林入境旅游发展轨迹呈现出明显的波中有波的周期性波动,长波周期和短波周期表现不同的规律性。③本底线多用于事件的评估和预测,实证案例拓展了其第三功能即旅游成长分析,尤其在周期分析中更能凸现事物发展的波中有波规律特征。④一个地区的旅游业是一个由路径依赖性质主导同时又不断受到外部冲击影响的复杂系统,在"刺激—反应"原理的支配下,其成长过程大体遵循"突变—路径依赖—突变—路径转换与新路径依赖……"的演化轨迹。案例分析表明,这与桂林入境旅游业成长过程较为吻合。

in this paper the growth process of inbound tourism and its inner characteristics were explored based on the background curve method as the typical tourism city Guilin a case study. What＇s more, the nonlinear theory was applied to probe into its development model and evolution path. All the findings are useful to the tourism policy made for the development of tourism in Guilin and macro-policies. From the study the following conclusions could be made： （1）so far the inbound tourism in Guilin has been in A significant increase in non-linear trend with the cycle fluctuations from 1973. （2）Guilin Tourism Development has shown clear wave in the cyclical nature of the wave, short wave and long wave cycle with different laws. （3）TBCM was often used for the assessment of events and forecast of tourism. The third function for the tourism growth was expanded based on the empirical ease, particularly in the analysis of the cycle in the development the law that the short waves in the long wave was highlighted with this method. （4） The development of tourism in an area, path-dependent by nature and at the same time affected by ongoing external shocks, was a complex system. In the domination of ＂stimulus - reaction＂ principle, it generally follows the evolution path of ＂mutation - path dependence - mutations ~ a new path conversion and dependent on the new path--. ＂ .Case study shows that the evolution path of the inbound tourism in Guilin is closely meet with this development model.