长江三角洲人口与经济的空间分布关系研究

STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION AND ECONOMIC SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION IN YANGTZE RIVER DELTA

通过分析长江三角洲地区各地级市1982—2007年人口数据和GDP数据,计算了各城市的人口地理集中度、经济地理集中度,不一致指数,人口重心和经济重心等,分析了长江三角洲地区城市人口集聚特征和经济集聚特征,两者在空间上的匹配关系及不同步性。研究结果显示:长江三角洲人口地理集中度和经济地理集中度均呈现出北高南低的分布特点;根据这两个地理集中度指数将长江三角洲16城市为三种类型:人口集聚超前于经济集聚,人口集聚滞后于经济集聚,人口与经济协调发展;研究阶段内长江三角洲地区的人口重心和经济重心均位于苏州市域内,历史轨迹呈现出人口和经济重心均向西南方向移动,并在向南移动上更具相关性的特点,经济重心移动的速度和规模远远超过人口重心的移动;分析表明,未来长江三角洲区域发展中,人口和经济的空间分布关系将趋向于协调发展。

The changes in the distribution of population and economic are very important in the regional studies. This paper analyses the distribution of population and economic concentration, the relationship between these two indexes in Yangtze River Delta. The writer finds that there are three types in the relationship between the population and economic development in this area. That is, population concentration advanced of economic concentration; population concentration lagged behind of economic concentration; population concentration harmonized with economic concentration. What＇s more, this paper also gives a whole look of the relationship between population and economic in Yangtze River Delta from the Reform and Open up, according to use the gravity centre analysis method. The study finds out the gravity centers of population and economic are both in Suzhou city area, and moves forward to the southwest of the whole region, which could be divided into three phases. Moreover, compared with the population, economic gravity center had a more intense movement. At last, the writer gives a simple explanation of the reasons, and puts forward to the future relationship between the two factors.