高速公路建设运营与经济增长关系的实证研究——以广东省为例

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between the Construction and Operation of Highway and Growth of Economy Based on the Data of Guangdong Province

高速公路等交通基础设施的建设和运营对国民经济增长的作用一直受到学术界和决策者的关注。本文以中国改革开放的前沿阵地——广东省为例,通过格兰杰因果关系检验和协整检验,发现高速公路通车里程增长是实际经济增长的格兰杰原因,反之却不成立。通过建立自回归分布滞后模型和向量自回归模型定量分析了高速公路建设和运营对经济增长的短期和中长期贡献,发现高速公路通车里程的增长对同期的经济增长贡献力度较弱,但是对经济增长的中长期贡献巨大,这种贡献与此期间广东经济鲜明的投资推动型和外向型特征紧密相关。最后给出相应建议,在经济快速发展的起步阶段,重视以高速公路为代表的交通基础设施的建设,会持久有效地促进经济增长,这也为中国落后地区的交通基础设施建设先行提供了实证依据。

Many policymakers and researchers are interested in the influence and contribution of construction and operation of highway transportation infrastructure to the growth of national economy.This paper uses the method of granger causality test and co-integrated test to find that the construction and operation of highway is the granger cause of the economy growth of Guangdong province,but the economy growth is not the granger cause of the construction of highway.Based on the co-integrated regression model and VAR model,It is proved that the construction of highway has weak immediate contribution to the growth of economy,but has large long-term contribution to the economy growth,and this type of contribution is correlated closely to the typical characteristics of investment push and high openness of the Guangdong economy.Finally,It concludes that at the primary stage of the economy development,the construction and operation of the transportation infrastructure characterized as the highway will accelerate the growth of economy for a long term.And it provides an empirical evidence for the poor area of China to invest to the construction of the highway transportation in advance to develop the local economy.