河南省耕地数量时空变化及其驱动因子分析

An Analysis of Dynamic Change of Cultivated Land in Henan Province and Driving Forces

根据相关社会经济统计资料,对河南省1978年以来耕地数量的变化趋势、区域差异及驱动因子进行了分析。对河南省耕地数量时空变化的分析表明:全省耕地数量整体波动较小,总量基本稳定;耕地增减的来源和流向分别以耕地开发和建设占用为主;省内各区域耕地变化有所差异;河南省耕地变化的驱动因子分析表明,人口、经济因素和农业产出能力对耕地数量的变化影响较大,而自然环境因素对耕地变化的影响有限。

Based on the relevant social and economic statistic materials, this paper analyzes the change tendency, the regional variation as well as the driving factors of cultivated land quantity in Henan Province since 1978, indicating from the above analysis that the general fluctuation within the province is small, total quantity basically stable, that development of farmland together with construction account respectively for the major part of farmland quantity fluctuation and flow direction, and that differences of farmland change exist in different regions of the province. An analysis of the driving factors of farmland change shows that population, economic indicators and agricultural output capability influence farmland quantity dramatically. On the other hand natural environmental factors exert limited influence on farmland quantity.