近35年江苏沿海气温变化对北半球增暖的响应

CHANGES OF COASTAL TEMPERATURE OVER JIANGSU IN RESPONSE TO THE WARMING OVER NORTHERN HEMISPHERE DURING RECENT 35 YEARS

采用主分量分析与回归估计相结合的方法，研究近３５年来江苏沿海气温变化对北半球增暖的响应状况。根据北半球平均增暖的条件，推求未来气候情景下该区各地增暖的可能幅度及其可靠性。结果表明，（１）北半球增暖背景下，本区夏季气温变化趋势和年际振动的响应，具有很大的不确定性；（２）除夏季以外，其余各季及年平均气温对北半球增暖的响应特征明显；增暖的敏感季节在冬季；当北半球增暖１℃时，本区一般有０．７～０．８℃的增暖，冬季最大，可达０．９℃以上；（３）对北半球平均增暖的响应敏感区和可靠区分别在苏北徐淮盐地区和沿海地带。

This paper studies the response of the coastal temperature over Jiangsu(JS) to the warming over the Northern Hemisphere(NH) during recent 35 years using two methods, i.e. the principal component analysis and regression estimate. According to the condition of mean warming over the NH, the possible warming amplitudes and their dependabilities over the JS region are estimated for the future climate. The results are as follows: (1) responses for the trend of summer temperature and inter annual fluctuation to the warming over the NH have great uncertainty; (2) except summer the changes of other season and annual mean temperatures are significant in response to the NH warming with winter being most sensitive, and under the NH warming of 1℃, the seasonal warming over the JS region may generally reaches 0.7～0.8℃ with the largest being 0.9℃ in winter; And (3) sensitive and dependable areas are located in Xu Huai Yian areas and the coastal belt respectively.