新疆破坏性地震损失“盲估”方法

A METHOD FOR “BLIND ASSESSMENT” OF THE LOSSES FROM DESTRUCTIVE EARTHQUAKES

通过总结新疆近年来的震害预测研究成果和震害损失评估工作的实践，给出了震后损失快速评估方法——“盲估”方法。经过实际震害损失评估结果的检验，认为“盲估”结果可以粗略反映新疆破坏性地震造成的经济损失和人员伤亡情况，但在实际操作时应该考虑到一些影响“盲估”结果的具体因素。

By summarizing the achievements in earthquake disaster prediction and the practice in earthquake disaster loss assessment,a rapid postseismic loss assessment method——“bling assessment”method is given in the paper.Compared with the real earthquake disaster loss result,it is thought that the “blind assessment”result is able to roughly reflect the conditions of the economic loss and dead injured people caused by the destructive earthquakes in Xinjiang.But when it is used in practice some factors that affect“blind assessment”result should be considered.It is advanced that establishing rapid,computerized postseismic trend judgement system is the developing trend of earthquake disaster assessment in future.