基于空屋链模型的住房市场过滤过程实证分析

Filtering and a Vacancy Chains Model in Housing Market

供求结构失衡与中低收入者住房难是中国城市住房市场存在的突出矛盾,住房市场过滤机制具有缓解供求结构矛盾的作用。通过构建城市住房市场的空屋链模型,利用杭州市270户家庭调查数据,对城市住房过滤现象与过程进行实证分析。结果表明:杭州住房市场存在过滤现象但不明显,住房等级与住房过滤效果具有正向的变动关系,高等级住房能为市场提供更多的住房机会。空屋转移多发生在同级内部,各等级间的空屋转移不显著。

Structural imbalance of supply and demand and housing problems of low-income households are outstanding ones in housing market.Housing filtering mechanism can resolve the structural problems.Based on the investigation of 270 households in Hangzhou,with an empirical model of vacancy chains,this paper analyzes housing filtering phenomenon and process in housing market.The results indicate that the filtering of dwellings in the housing market of Hangzhou is not obvious and has not played a very good role.There is a positive correlation between the quality level of a house and its filtering effect theoretically.The higher level houses provide more opportunities.Most vacancy mobility takes place in the same sub-markets but not among different sub-markets.