经济发展方式变化对中国碳排放强度的影响

Economic Development Pattern Change Impact on China's Carbon Intensity

本文基于投入产出结构分解方法实证分析了1987年至2007年经济发展方式变化对中国GDP碳排放强度的影响。分析的结果表明,在整个研究时期内,经济发展方式的变化使中国的GDP碳排放强度下降了66.02%。其中,生产部门能源强度、需求直接能源消费率的持续下降和能源结构的变化分别使碳排放强度下降了90.65%、13.04%和1.16%,但是需求衡量的分配结构、三次产业结构、三次产业内结构、制造业内结构变化以及进口率和中间投入结构的变化却分别导致碳排放强度上升了4.61%、2.50%、1.02%、3.85%、2.89%和27.63%。此外,本文还结合实证分析的结果对有关转变经济发展方式的一些重要政策进行了讨论。

This paper applies input-output structural decomposition analysis （I0 SDA） to analyze how economic development pattern change impact on China＇s carbon intensity from 1987 to 2007. The results indicate that the economic development pattern change caused a 66.02% decrease in China＇s carbon intensity in the whole study period. Details show that changes in sector energy intensities, direct energy consumption ratio of final demand and energy structure caused the carbon intensity to decrease by 90.65%, 13.04% and 1.16% respectively while changes in industrial structural, aggregated sector structure within industries and within manufacturing sector mix in final demand, changes of import ratio and changes in input mix brought increases of 4.61%, 2.50%, 1.02%, 3.85%, 2.89% and 27.63% in the carbon intensity respectively. The results also imply that a number of policies made by the government to accelerate changing the economic development pattern at present are also helpful for decreasing the carbon intensity.