摘要
水文过程受众多自然和人为因素影响,决定了其变化的极端复杂性,表现为确定性的动态规律与不确定性的统计规律共存。水文不确定性分析的理论和方法在认识水文规律中发挥着重要作用,其中贝叶斯作为一种主要理论方法在水文水资源相关问题的研究中得到了较广泛的应用。本文评述了贝叶斯理论在水文频率分析、水文预报、确定性和不确定性方法耦合等研究中的进展,对基于贝叶斯理论的水文不确定性重点研究内容进行了展望。
The hydrological system is extremely complex.The hydrological process in a region is mainly determined by natural conditions and human activities on the region.Both deterministic and stochastic hydrological processes often coexist in the system.The uncertainty analysis in hydrological modeling plays a vital role in searching for regularities of hydrological processes.The Bayesian theory is one of the most widely used approaches to analyzing uncertainties in hydrological modeling.In this paper,we review the recent progresses on the application of an approach in hydrological frequency analysis,flood forecasting,as well as the coupling of deterministic and stochastic methods.Perspectives and recommendations on the subject are also provided.
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第2期274-281,共8页
Advances in Water Science
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2007CB714104)
国家自然科学基金资助项目(50779013)
教育部博士点基金资助项目(20070294018)~~
关键词
贝叶斯理论
水文频率分析
水文预报
不确定性
Bayesian theory
hydrological frequency analysis
flood forecasting
uncertainty analysis
