地震地下水动态监测与地震预测

Seismic Groundwater Monitoring and Earthquake Prediction

尽管几千年前人们就开始注意到地震前和地震时井、泉水的宏观异常现象,但在一些地震前出现的异常现象,在另一些地震前可能并不会出现;在一些地震前出现的异常现象,在另一些地区出现了,却并没有地震发生,这说明地下水异常与地震之间的关系是复杂的。地震地下水动态监测的目的在于获取地下水物理、化学等要素随时间变化的过程,为地下水异常和地震之间关系的研究提供基础数据。地震地下水动态监测中诸如台网如何优化布设等科学技术问题值得深入研究。某些特定的地下水异常是否是地震前兆,地震地下水前兆与地震在时间、地点上对应关系的不确定性仍然是地震地下水研究和地震预测实践中最大的难题。

Though visible groundwater anomalies have been noticed in wells and springs before and during earthquakes for thousands of years,it has been proven that precursory groundwater anomaly occurring before some earthquakes may not appear prior to some others;on the other hand,precursory groundwater anomaly which occurred at previous earthquakes appears newly in some areas but may not accompany with new earthquakes.It shows that the relation of groundwater anomalies to earthquakes is complex.Seismic groundwater regime monitoring is aimed at acquiring groundwater physical and chemical changes and providing basic information for studies on the relation of groundwater to earthquakes.Monitoring is not only a technique but also a kind of science.Some scientific and technological issues such as monitoring network optimization need to be further studied.It remains difficult to identify seismic precursor from groundwater anomalies and to link groundwater anomalies with earthquakes temporally and spatially.