中国区域经济发展差距的演变趋势研究

The Research on the Evolution Tendency of China's Regional Economy Development Disparity

在"倒U型"假说和"U型"假说的基础上,利用回归模型对全国及三大区域经济发展差距的演变趋势进行实证研究。研究表明:全国和各地区不同时期呈现不同的发展差距演变趋势。1978-1994年全国区域经济发展差距符合"U"型,但1995年以后朝"倒U型"右端方向发展,呈收敛的发展趋势;改革开放以来东部区域经济差距继续朝着"U型"左端方向发展,但是,近年来东部区域经济出现了一些新的经济特征,使得该地区有可能出现空间再结构化现象,这必将对其收敛的发展趋势造成冲击;中部区域经济发展差距符合"U"型,但2005年以后中部各省区紧抓发展机遇,经济差距开始朝"U型"右端方向发展,呈发散的发展趋势;1993年以来西部区域经济发展差距朝"U型"右端方向发展,表现为发散的发展趋势。

Based on the ＂inverted U-type＂ hypothesis and the ＂U-type＂ hypothesis, this article conducts an empirical study on disparity evolution tendency of the national and three regional economic developments by using the regression model. The study shows that the development disparities of the nation and various regions present different evolution tendency in different periods. In 1978-1994, national economies development disparity conforms to ＂U-type＂ ; while it has developed along the fight side of ＂ U-type＂ after 1995, and shows a trend of convergence; since the reform and opening, the eastern regional economy disparity has kept developing toward the left side of ＂U-type＂. However, the eastern regional economy presents some new economical charac- teristics in recent years, which brings the region the possibility of spatial reorganization so as to have an impact on its convergence trend of development. The eentral regional economic development disparity conforms to ＂U-type＂. As the central provinces seized development opportunities since 2005, the economic gap has developed towards the right side of ＂U-type＂ , showing a divergent trend of development. Since 1993, the western regional economic development disparity develops towards the right side of ＂ U- type＂ ,manifesting a divergent trends.