经济增长中的政府功效和区域贫困化问题研究——基于中国1038个县(县级市)统计数据的实证分析

The Study of Government Efficiency and Regional Poverty of Economic Growth

本文使用2005年中国1038个县(县级市)统计数据,通过建立柯布.道格拉斯生产函数,对模型进行了邹至庄检验。发现:影响县域经济增长的主要因素是固定资产投资,同时模型的结构是不稳定的,结构变化的拐点在人均GDP为11617元。也是说,在经济发展过程中,政府的财政支出在经济水平较低的县,对经济增长的推动作用是不显著的。"贫困陷阱"地区的经济起飞存在一个明显的"阈值",政府的"财政推力"只有超过这个"阈值",才能发挥应有的作用。

We use a lot of statistical data of 1038 chinese counties 2005, establish the model of Cobb-Douglas function, and procced Chow test. We conclude that the important factor to influence economic growth of counties is the fix asset investment, and model structure is not stabilization, and the breakpoint is RMB 11617 on GDP per captia. That is to say, on the proccedure of economic development, it is not obvious that fiscal expenditure stimulate economic growth in poor counties. There is obvious ＂Threshold＂ when the area on ＂Poverty Trap＂ hope to takeoff, and the government ＂Fiscal Push＂ is significant as exceed the threshold.