气象水文耦合中的降尺度方法研究进展

Research Development on Downscaling Method in Meteorology and Hydrology Coupling

简述遥感技术特别是雷达估算降水技术发展对缓解气象水文尺度不匹配的贡献,着重介绍目前国内外研究应用较多的统计降尺度模型(SDSM)、EOF迭代方法、主分量分析与逐步回归相结合、动力与统计相结合等4种降尺度方法。同时,简要介绍中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所改进的一种降尺度方法,并选取一次降水过程,对利用该方法降尺度后的降水预报结果与其实况进行对比分析。结果表明,该降尺度方法有效地提高了降水预报结果的空间分辨率(2km×2km),有利于天气模式与水文模式相结合。

The contribution of remote sensing technique and, in particular, the radar estimated precipitation technology developments on mitigation of mismatched meteorological and hydrological scale are reviewed. The statistical downscaling model SDSM, EOF iteration method, principal component analysis combined with stepwise regression method and dynamics combined with statistics downscaling method are introduced in detail. A selected precipitation case is used to analyze and compare observational data with the precipitation forecast results performed by a new downscaling method raised by Wuhan Institute of Heavy Rain, CMA. The results show that the new downscaling method can improve spatial resolution of precipitation （2 km×2 km）, and be favorable to the further coupling of the meteorology model and the hydrology model.