基于图示评审技术多反馈仿真的武器装备技术风险评估

Assessment of technical risk for weapon system development project based on GERT simulation including multi-branch feedback

为避免研制费用超支和进度拖延,将存在一定失败概率的武器装备研制各活动引入图示评审技术随机网络中,建立了基于图示评审技术的多反馈分支仿真模型。对仿真输出结果进行统计分析,分别建立了项目级和子系统级的费用超支百分比、工期拖延百分比、费用风险度、工期风险度等技术风险量化评估模型,并进行了技术风险影响因素的灵敏度分析。最后,以某型号武器装备研制项目为例,给出了详细的技术风险评估过程,验证了该仿真模型的实用性和有效性。

In order to avoid over-cost and time delay in the weapon system development,the failure probability and multi-branch feedback of the weapon system were brought into the graphical evaluation review technique（GERT） network.A feedback simulation model based on GERT network including multi-branch was established.Through the statistical analysis of simulation outputs,the quantitative indictors of technical risk both at project and subsystem level were defined respectively,such as the percentage of over-cost and time delay,and the variation coefficient of cost and time.Also,the sensitivity analysis of technical risk factors was also performed.The technical risk of a specific weapon system was analyzed by the simulation model in detail,which proved the feasibility and effectiveness of the simulation model.