农村社会信用体系建设与贷款利率定价关系实证研究

Empirical Study on Relationship between Rural Credit System Construction and Interest Rate Pricing

本文基于田东县金融改革试点前后的时间序列,利用协整与格兰杰因果检验方法,采用农户入户率和贷款加权平均利率为指标,研究田东县农村社会信用体系建设与贷款利率定价的因果方向性问题。结论表明:田东县纳入征信体系农户入库率与农户贷款加权平均利率存在单向因果关系,表明农户入库率的上升是农户贷款加权平均利率下降的原因,但反过来不存在因果关系。在田东县涉农贷款中,农村合作银行(后简称农合行)是支农贷款的主力军,故以田东县农合行为例进行实证研究。

Based on the time series of the experimental financial reform of Tiandong County, the paper employs the methods of cointegration and granger causality test and adopts the coverage of rural households and weighted average interest rate of loans as indicators to study the causality direction of the relationship between rural credit system construction of Tiandong County and interest rate pricing. The results indicate that the one-way casual relationship between the coverage of rural households in the credit system of Tiandong County and the weighted average interest rate of agricultural loans ,and the increase of the coverage is the cause for the lowered weighted average interest rate of agricultural loans. Oppositely, there is no casual relationship.