2009年黑龙江上游开江期冰坝凌汛的分析与预测

Analysis and forecast on the ice run and the melting date of the upper reaches of Heilongjiang River in 2009

冰坝凌汛是在特定的气象、地理和水文条件下形成的。本文利用气象和水文等资料，分析预测了2009年黑龙江上游漠河、呼玛江段开江日期，取得了很好的效果。选取与开江时间预报密切相关的气象因子．采用多元统计回归方法，建立黑龙江上游漠河、呼玛江段开江日期预报模型，经检验回归显著，并对2004～2009年开江日期进行试报。

The ice run is formed in a particular meteorological,geographical and hydrological conditions. In this paper, based on meteorological and hydrological data, analysis and forecasting of the thaw date of the upper reaches Mohe and Huma section of the Heilongjiang River in 2009 achieved very good results. Selecting meteorological factors closely related to the thaw date of the river, the forecast models of the upper reaches Mohe and Huma section of Heilongjiang River were established using multivariate statistical regression model. The forecast models are tested sigiaificantly and are used to forecast the thaw date from 2004 to 2009