土地、技术进步与粮食安全研究

A Study on Land,Technical Progress and Food Security

通过对1980～2007年粮食自给率的研究，运用回归方法分析了可能影响中国粮食自给率的因素。分析结果表明，中国粮食自给率一直保持在95％以上，履行了对世界的承诺，表现了中国的大国责任。另外，中国粮食方面的大国效应并不明显，主要表现在，中国的粮食产量增量完全可以解决中国人口增量的需求；土地对于中国粮食自给率的影响不显著，表明中国粮食产量的贡献主要来自于粮食亩产的提高，土地贡献率不大，原因在于中国不断增加的投入。因此，通过政策增加投入和调动农民积极性，才能保障中国粮食产量，确保中国粮食自给率。

The paper studies the grain self - sufficient rate of China from 1980 to 2007, and analyzes the factors which may influence the rate by using regression analysis. The result shows that China＇ s grain self - sufficient rate has always been kept over 95 %. This means China has fulfilled its promises to the world, and shows our responsibility as a large country. Besides, China＇ s large country effect in grain is not obvious, which is mainly showed in the following aspects： the increment of grain yield can fully satisfy the need of population growth in China; the influence of land on the grain self - sufficient rate is not significant, which means that China＇ s grain production increase mainly comes from the increase of per Mu grain yield due to the e6ntinual investment. Therefore, it is necessary to make more investment in agriculture through policies and improve farmers＇ activity in production, and only in this way, can we secure China＇ s grain production, and ensure our grain selfsufficient rate.