二季度债券市场收益率曲线将陡峭化上行

Bond yield curve will move upward sharply in Q2

在充裕资金面的影响下,一季度银行间债券市场走出一波温和上扬行情,10年期国债收益率从年初的3.7%左右下行至一季度末的3.35%附近。文章综合相关数据分析后预计,未来工业增加值增速、货币供应量将有所放缓,新增贷款有望平稳增长,宏观经济仍将高位运行,结合经济走势相似年份的CPI均值,预计二季度CPI上行至3%后逐步回落,国债及政策性金融债收益率曲线整体小幅上行,收益率曲线呈现陡峭化态势。

The interbank bond market rose moderately in Q1 due to abundant funds. The 10Y T-bond yield closed this quarter at 3.35% from the quarter-ago figure of 3.7%. After analyzing relevant data, this paper predicts that in the future, the growth of industrial value-added and money supply will slow down, while new loans will increase steadily and macro economy will still be running in high gear. Considering the average CPI in years with similar economic background, it is expected that the CPI will gradually drop after hitting 3% in Q2, and T-bond and policy-based financial bond yield curves will generally go up. The yield curve will turn sharply.