基于SSM的伊犁河流域主导产业选择定量化研究

Quantitative Research on the Choice of Leading Industry Based on SSM in Ili River Basin

在梳理了传统主导产业选择基准理论与偏离-份额分析法基本原理的基础上,选取伊犁河流域1997年和2006年两个时间点的30个工业部门为分析对象,以国家范围内的30个工业部门的情况为参照,对研究区30个工业部门进行了份额偏离分量、结构偏离分量和竞争力偏离分量的综合比较分析。结果表明,农副食品加工业、纺织业以及电力、热力的生产和供应业3个产业部门最有可能成为主导产业;同时,也说明研究方法具有基本客观性、有效性和较强的操作性。

The paper begins with the reviewing of the traditional theory of the choice of leading industry, and then introduces the theoretical basis of the Shift-Share-Method. With the use of SSM, the paper selects the region of Hi River Basin＇ s 30 industry departments with reference to the whole industry＇ s 30 industry departments in 1997s and 2006s as the object to be analyzed, and then comprehensively analyses Ili River Basin＇ s 30 industry departments＇ three indicators： the national share, the industry mix, the regional share. The results show that the three industries which are agricultural and supplementary foodstuffs processing industry, textile industry and electric power, heat supply and production industry are most likely to be the leading industries, and that to some extent SSM is very objective and effective for choosing of the leading industry, and it is also of great effectiveness and operation in the actual case.