气候变化背景下辽宁省气候资源变化特征分析

Analysis of Changes in Climate Resources in Liaoning Province in the Context of Global Climate Change

采用辽宁省54个气象台站建站以来的气温、降水、积温、风速、日照、蒸发等9个气象要素年资料,分析了近半个世纪辽宁省气候资源变化的空间、时间特征,以及其变化对农业和气象能源的影响。结果表明:辽宁省各地的气温、积温普遍为增高趋势,降水、风速、日照、蒸发普遍为减少倾向;气温、积温、日照、蒸发等均具有突变性和阶段性特征,风速、最低气温无显著突变性,而是存在明显的趋势性;从长远看,气候资源变化对辽宁省农业生产和生态环境的影响是弊大于利;虽然观测表明风速有下降趋势,但不能说明风能资源蕴藏量有下降趋势,需要今后进一步关注,但太阳能资源有一定的减少倾向;辽西地区易发展太阳能资源开发利用项目。

Effects of climate changes represented by increases in temperature may cause the alteration of the entire climate system,energy resources and the environment,showing long-term influences.On the basis of nine meteorological variables（e.g.,temperature,rainfall,accumulate temperature,wind speed,sunshine duration and evaporation）from 54 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province,characteristics of temporal-spatial changes in climatic resources during the past half century were analyzed in detail in the present study using the linear climatic tendency ratio, Mann-Kendall,and Morlet methods.Furthermore,the authors investigated impacts of changes in climate variables on agriculture and meteorological energy sources.Results indicated that the temperature and accumulate temperature have been showing a increasing trend across the whole of Liaoning Province,showing a climatic tendency ratio of annual mean,highest,lowest temperature and accumulate temperature in most parts of the study areas of（0.2-0.4）℃/10a,（0.2-0.3）℃/10a, （0.4-0.6）℃/10a and（40-80）℃/10a,respectively.On the contrary,the rainfall,wind speed, sunshine and evaporation of the study areas have been displaying a decreasing trend.It was also found that the decreasing trends in precipitation in the east and south of Liaoning Province were most significant,generally greater than 20 mm/10a.In the middle and west regions,it was estimated to be 10-20mm/10a.The decreasing rate of sunshine duration was larger than 40 h/10a in most areas.Wind speed decreased markedly in most parts of Liaoning Province.As for Pan evaporation,it decreased obviously over the west of the study areas.Examination of variation trends in temperature,accumulate temperature,sunshine duration and evaporation demonstrated that these climatic variables basically exhibited characteristics of sudden changes and phrase changes,with showing greatly varying turning points.When exceeding those turning points,the mean annual temperature,accumulate temperature,sunshine duration and evaporation changed approximately by 1℃,200℃,100h and 100 mm,respectively.In addition,the wind speed and the lowest temperature appeared not to suddenly change during the study period,clearly showing decreasing trends.The changes in climatic variables presented above may cause thermal resources to become richer and wind damage would decrease significantly,which would be greatly helpful for agricultural sustainable development.However,the changes in climate variables would also result in decreases in sunshine and precipitation resources,thereby increasing the risks of plant diseases and insect pests.It was also likely to increase climatic disasters.It could be concluded that in the long term,the effects of climatic changes on agriculture and the environment would bring more harm than good.As for meteorological energy resources,even though wind speed was found to present a decreasing trend,it did not necessarily mean wind energy resources were decreasing. Solar energy resources showed a slightly decreasing trend.Projects on exploiting solar resources could be conducted over the west of Liaoning Province.