江苏省1996年至2007年碳排放效应及时空格局分析

Effects of Carbon Emissions and Their Spatio-Temporal Patterns in Jiangsu Province from 1996 to 2007

本文通过对江苏省1996年—2007年碳排放效应分析得出:①江苏省近12年碳排放总量年均增长14%,2007年达到14370万t,碳排放增长过快问题突出;②提出了地均碳排放强度和地均建设用地碳排放强度两个新指标,并计算得出2007年全省地均碳排放强度和地均建设用地碳排放强度分别达到2.06t/hm2和84.32t/hm2;③2007年江苏全省碳排放量、地均碳排放强度和地均建设用地碳排放都呈现苏南>苏中>苏北的分布格局,13市地均碳排放强度差异显著,其排放强度总体与经济发展水平呈正相关;建设用地碳排放对总碳排放贡献最大是各地市共同之处;④江苏省碳排放强度与人均GDP呈倒U型曲线关系,曲线的拐点在(2.0～2.1)万元/人附近;⑤能源消耗是碳排放的主体,建设用地是最主要的碳源,1996年—2007年全省虽然其碳排放总量呈上升趋势,但全省万元GDP碳排放强度从2004年开始逐年下降的,说明江苏全省碳减排已取得一定成效,但减排压力仍然巨大,减排工作任重道远。

Regional land use provides the base for human activities and changes in land use types can generally reflect the mutual influence between human and carbon emissions. In the context of rapid economic development in Jiangsu Province in China, it is of great necessity to examine regional land use change, particularly characteristics and spatial distributions of typical land use types such as cultivated land, woodland, grassland and land for construction. Land use is one of the most primary factors affecting carbon emissions. In order to analyze the effects of land use on carbon emissions, in the present study, the authors utilized data on Jiangsu Province during the period 1996 to 2007 to calculate carbon emissions affected by a broad spectrum of land use types. It was found that first, carbon emissions greatly varied over different land use types, in which the land for construction and cultivated land were considered two major carbon sources. Woodland and grassland were two major carbon sinks. Second, carbon emissions were found to increase by 14%over the entire Jiangsu Province during the latest 12 years, with emitting carbon of 143.7 million tons in 2007. Furthermore, two new indexes describing carbon emissions, i.e., carbon emission per unit area of land and carbon emission per unit area of construction land, were proposed. These two indexes could better reflect carbon emission intensity and the differences between different regions, showing a value of 2.06 t/hm2 and 84.32 t/hm2, respectively, in 2007. Third, carbon emissions peaked in the south, and showed a relatively higher level in central part and a low level in the north of Jiangsu. Carbon emissions per ha of land exhibited an exponential increase, which would increase slowly in the future. Carbon emission per ha of land was markedly different in 13 cities. The emission intensity was found to be positively correlated with the level of economic development. At last, similarities and differences in carbon emissions for different regions in Jiangsu were analyzed. Fourth, there existed a reversed U shaped curve between carbon emission intensity and GDP per capita, with showing the inflexion point of the curve at roughly 21000 yuan per capita. Fifth, energy consumption was thought of the main source of carbon emissions. The land for construction was the largest carbon source, and the carbon emission per ha was increasing from 1996 to 2007. However, carbon sink maintained generally stable during this period. Finally, some suggestions on carbon emission reductions and fostering studies about low-carbon economy in Jiangsu Province were given.