贸易风险经济影响与区域分布的实证研究——以广东省为例

Empirical Study on the Economic Effects and Spatial Distribution of Trade Risk:A Case Study of Guangdong Province

对外贸易是一国或地区与世界经济联系的重要纽带,经济全球化会通过进出口贸易对一国或地区经济带来就业和经济增长等方面的风险。因此研究贸易风险及其区域分布对于稳定区域经济增长与扩大就业具有重要的现实意义。本文以广东省为例,研究贸易风险的经济影响及其区域空间分布。实证研究表明,出口的增长对于地区经济的成长和就业的增长尤其重要;然而,过分地依赖出口,将不利于地区经济的稳健成长,也不利于就业的增长,贸易依存度高的地区一旦出口受阻,则会带来失业增加、产业受损等不利后果。对广东省贸易风险的空间分布分析表明,贸易风险较高的地区主要集中于珠三角地区,尤其是东莞、深圳、惠州和珠海等地区。这对贸易风险防范具有重要指导意义,当全球经济有衰退趋势时,贸易依存度较高的地区应提前做好贸易风险防范的措施。

International trade is one of the most important links between one country or area and the world economy.Meanwhile,economic globalization will bring risks to a country’s or an area’ s employment and economy growth through international trade.Therefore,the study on trade risk and its regional distribution is important for stabilizing regional economic growth and promoting employment.In this paper,we studied the economic effects and spatial distribution of trade risk,taking Guangdong Province as an example.The empirical study of this paper shows that the export is very important to the growth of a region’s economy and employment.If the export slows down,the regional economy and the employment will also slow down.However,the regional economy and the employment should not depend heavily on export.When the ratio of export in the regional economy growth is too high,it will have a negative effect on both the regional economy and employment.The spatial analysis of trade risk shows that the highest trade risk regions are mainly located around the Pearl River Delta area,such as Dongguan,Shenzhen,Huizhou and Zhuhai.The spatial distribution of trade risk regions is helpful to policy decision making.Once there is a sign of recession of world economy,counter-measures against trade risks should be taken in advance in those regions with high dependency of international trade.