经济刺激计划的负面效应分析——以美国为样本

The Analysis of Negative Effects of the Economic Stimulus Package: a Sample of America

在经济萧条时,经济刺激计划对于避免震荡、稳定市场、恢复信心、促进增长有重要作用。但当经济止跌企稳时,经济刺激计划要适时退出,否则会带来政府财政负担加大,赤字增加,潜在通货膨胀压力加大,财政政策的挤出效应,助长道德风险和逆市场化改革等一系列负外部效应。以美国为例,分析美国经济救援和经济刺激计划的负外部效应,从而提出对中国四万亿经济刺激计划实施的反思与启示。

During the depression,economic stimulus package plays an important role in avoiding fluctuation,stabilizing market,restoring confidence,promoting growth and so on. But when economy begins to stabilize,the stimulus package should withdraw at a proper time,or a series of negative externalities such as heavy fiscal burden and financial deficit,potential inflation,crowding-our effect of fiscal policy,moral hazard and anti-marketization and so on may arise. The paper takes America as an example to illustrate the negative externalities of America’s economic recovery and stimulus plans. At last,it puts forwards the enlightenments to China’s 4000 billion economic stimulus’plan.