红三角经济圈县域经济差异研究

COUNTY-LEVEL ECONOMIC DISPARITIES IN THE RED-TRIANGLE ECONOMIC ZONE

利用传统统计分析方法和ESDA方法,在ArcGIS和GeoDA等软件的支持下,以县域为研究单元,以人均GDP为测度指标,从时间、空间、关联性三个侧面对1990—2008年红三角经济圈县域经济差异的空间格局及演化进行了分析。结果表明:红三角经济圈区域差异呈持续扩大趋势,其中赣州市、韶关市和郴州市内部差异呈现波动中不断上升,区域间差异在波动中不断缩小;县域经济在空间上表现出东西两极分化现象;经济发展水平较高县域以韶关市区、郴州市区和赣州市区为核心形成三个高值区;三市经济发展水平处于倒"U"型曲线的三个不同发展阶段;中心城市的规模对区域影响显著,改善交通和培育中心城市是促进落后地区经济发展的两个重要方面;根据经济关联性把红三角经济圈县域分成扩散型、极化型、塌陷型和传染型,不同类型区域对应不同的发展策略。

With the aid of ArcGIS 9.2 and GeoDA 9.5, the study is done on the county level and measured by the index of PCGDP with the methods of Statistic analysis and ESDA. Spatial-temporal pattern and spatial interaction types of county-level economic disparities in Red-Triangle Economic Zone during 1990-2008 are preliminarily explored from three aspects, namely, time series, spatial series and spatial autocorrelation. The following conclusions are made： the overall county-level economic disparities in Red-Triangle Economic Zone have enlarged. The internal county-level economic disparities in Ganzhou, Shaoguan and Chenzhou increase with fluctuations. The Inter-regional disparities decrease with fluctuations. The spatial disparities of county-level economy are significant between the East and the West. Three high-value areas are formed centered around counties with higher-level economic development,i.e.Shaoguan, Chenzhou and Ganzhou urban districts. The economic development levels of the three cities are corresponding to the three different stages of the inverted ＂U＂-type. The size of central cities has significant impact on regional development. To improve the traffic situation and to cultivate central cities are the two important aspects of promoting the economic development of underdeveloped areas. According to the relationship between one county and its adjacent counties, the counties in Red-Triangle Economic Zone can be divided into diffuse pattern, polarization pattern, sinking pattern and infection pattern.