海南岛台风灾害损失的可拓评估方法及应用

Extension Assessment of Typhoon Disaster in Hainan Island and Its Application

选择台风危害严重、具有典型性的海南岛作为研究区,通过对台风灾害成因的分析研究,在台风灾害形成环境背景和台风灾害数据库的基础上,利用统计方法确定评估模型中的各类参数,运用可拓理论建立海南岛台风灾害评估可拓模型,评估结果分为5级。利用所建立的评估模型对0801号台风"浣熊"进行计算,评估结果较符合实际灾情,说明将可拓方法应用于区域台风灾害评估的思路正确,方法可行,表明可拓方法在气象灾害评估方面的研究具有广阔的应用前景。

Hainan Island suffers typhoon disaster seriously and has typical nature.It was selected as a case study area.According to the analysis of reasons of typhoon disaster formation,an extension model for evaluation of typhoon disaster in Hainan Island was built by using the extension theory based on the environment background and the typhoon disaster database.Various indexes for evaluation of typhoon disaster in Hainan Island were identified by using statistics method.The evaluation results were divided into 5 levels.The extension model was used to calculate the disaster of typhoon 0801 or ＂Noguri＂,and the result was very similar to the actual disaster situation.This showed that the application of the extension method in evaluation of regional typhoon disaster is practical,which suggests that the extension method has broad prospect on evaluation of meteorological disaster stricken areas.