松花江流域哈尔滨站降雨径流历史演变及其驱动力分析

Analysis on historical evolution and driving force of rainfall and runoff of Harbin Station in Songhua River

降雨径流是引起水土流失的主要自然外营力,研究径流变化及其影响因素对深入认识水土流失规律具有重要意义。根据松花江流域哈尔滨站1909—2005年(缺1943—1952年)长序列观测资料,运用游程理论、Mann-Ken-dall检验和双累积曲线等方法对松花江流域哈尔滨站的面平均降雨量、径流深年际变化进行分析。结果表明:87 a来,松花江流域哈尔滨站多年平均面雨量501.7 mm、径流深106.3 mm;面平均降雨量及径流深的正游程平均长度分别为1.7 a和2.1 a,均小于其负游程平均长度2.0 a和2.7 a,整体上降雨、径流更容易出现连枯年份;面平均降雨量和径流深无显著的趋势性变化,但具有明显的阶段性变化特征,均可分为3个丰水段、1个平水段和3个枯水段;受人类活动影响的降雨与径流关系可分为1909—1915年、1916—1927年、1928—1978年和1979—2005年4个阶段。

As rainfall and runoff are important natural forces to cause soil erosion, studying characteristics of runoff and its affecting factors has significance to understand the laws of soil erosion. Long se- quence data of 1909-2005 （lack 1943-1952） of the rainfall and runoff and the methods of runs theory, Mann-Kendall and double mass curve were used, and annual variability of the average rainfall and runoff depth of Harbin Station on the Songhua River were analyzed. The results show that： Over the past 87 years, average rainfall is 501.7 mm, and average runoff depth is 106. 3 mm. In Harbin Station, positive run-length of average rainfall and runoff depth are 1.7 years and 2.1 years respectively, which are less than their negative run-length 2.0 years and 2.7 years respectively. So rainfall and runoff are even more likely to appear dry years. Although there are no obvious trends in the average rainfall and runoff depth, there are significant stage characters. Both rainfall and runoff depth may be divided into three wet stages, one flat stage and three dry stages. Due to human activities, the rainfall-runoff sequence may be divided into 1909-1915, 1916-1927, 1928-1978 and 1979-2005 four phases.