基于自回归滑动平均模型的玛纳斯河洪水预报

Flood Forecasting Research of ARMA Model in Manas River Basin

水文预报作为重要的防洪非工程措施,对位于高寒山区的玛纳斯河流域防汛抢险、水利工程建设和调度具有重要意义。通过对玛纳斯河水文系统的分析,确定出影响玛纳斯河径流量的主要因素,建立了玛纳斯河流域流量预报的自回归滑动平均ARMA(p,q)模型,对肯斯瓦特水文站实测径流过程进行了预测检验。结果表明,自回归滑动平均模型对实测年径流量有很好的逼近拟合效果,相对误差很小,ARMA(p,q)模型用于径流量预测有较高的精度,是可行的。

As non-engineering control flood measure, runoff forecasting is very important for controlling flood and managing water conservancy projects. Through the analysis of the water system of the Manas River,the primary factors of the runoff were confirmed and ARMA（p, q） model was established to forecast the quantity. It forecast and verified the runoff quantity of Kensiwate hydrology station. The result showed that the ARMA（p, q）model is approach the date which is measured, the opposite error is little and the model is feasible to the runoff quantity forecasting.