汇率变动对中国加工贸易的结构调整效应分析

The Effect of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on Chinese Processing Trade Structure Upgrade

汇率变动通过对不同需求弹性、市场结构的加工贸易商品和不同性质投入要素成本价格竞争力传导差异,引起相应生产部门利润动力和压力差异,使商品和要素在国家及各部门间重新进行配置,导致其结构变化。利用我国1995—2008年度统计数据进行实证检验,结果表明:汇率升值有利于引导国内企业和外商投资方向,通过优化产业价值链,延伸产业价值链长度及提升该产业价值链中的生产环节,改变目前以劳动力密集型为主的静态比较优势,发展以资本技术密集型为主的动态比较优势,使加工贸易结构得到优化;汇率贬值的贸易结构调整效应相反。

Exchange rate fluctuation conducts discrepancy to processing trading products, which have various demand elasticities and market structures, and to their cost-＆-price competitiveness, which consists of invested elements with different qualities. This, correspondingly, aroses differences in profit drive and pressure in production sections, reallocates the goods and elements between countries and departments, and leads to the changes in processing trade structure. The results of this empirical examination with statistic data from 1995--2008 in China shows that the appreciation of exchange rate is favorable for steering the domestic and foreign investment, orientation, optimizing industrial value chain, extending its length and promoting production links to upgrade processing trade structure by improving the current static labor-intensive comparative advantages and developing dynamic capital technology intensive comparative advantages; while, the depreciation of exchange rate exerts the opposite effect.