逐步相似过滤法在青海省4～10天降水预报中的应用

Application of a similar forecast method with step-by-step filter for precipitation forecast in 4～10 d of Qinghai province

依据逐步相似过滤法和最小相似离度原理,利用T213数值预报产品、NCEP逐日再分析资料和1957-2005年青海省42个地面站降水资料,建立不同的相似预报过滤方案,制作青海省未来4～10天的降水预报.经过降水预报准确率检验,确定"最优"逐步相似过滤方案.最优方案降水预报水平与青海省2008年降水业务预报水平对比表明:所建立的"最优"逐步相似过滤方案对青海省未来4～10天的降水预报具有更高的可信度,在日常预报中具有较高参考价值.

According to the principle of similar forecast methods with a step-by-step filter and the smallest degree of analogue deviation and by using T213 numerical forecast products, NCEP reanalyzed daily data and rainfall data of 42 stations in Qinghai, different precipitation forecast projects for 4-10 d were established. The forecast results were tested to choose the ‘optimal＇ project. A forecast test was carried out between the products of the‘optimal＇ project forecast and the products of the operational precipitation forecast. The results suggest that the‘optimal＇ project has a higher reliability and can be used in operational precipitation forecast.