消费替代弹性、经济开放与中国经济外部失衡

Consumption Substitution Elasticity、Economy Opening and China's External Imbalance

本文通过求解一个动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)的两国模型,分析不同消费替代弹性下技术冲击和货币冲击对一国经济外部失衡的影响。指出随着一国经济的对外开放,当存在粘性价格且消费替代弹性很小时,负的技术冲击和正的货币冲击都会使得一国的均衡汇率水平升值和外部资产盈余,且都会收敛于偏离封闭经济的"0均衡"的新稳态。这给中国当前的经济外部失衡提供了一个比较好的解释,本文也依此提出了相应的政策建议。

Through solving the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium （ DSGE） of a two-country model,this paper studies the different effects of technological shocks and monetary shocks on a country＇s external imbalance on the conditions of different consumption substitution elasticity. We find that with a country＇s opening up,together with the existence of price stickiness and low elasticity of consumption substitution,the country＇s equilibrium exchange rate appreciation and the external surplus assets can be resulted from both negative technological shocks and positive monetary shocks,and converge to new steady states which deviates from the closed economy＂0 balance＂. This gives a good explanation to China＇s current economic external imbalance,and we also provide the corresponding policy recommendations.