摘要
为了研究中国信贷市场供求配适性状况,以及造成中国信贷投放总量错配的主要因素,文章利用1997-2009年2季度中国信贷市场季度数据,采用最大似然方法估计信贷供求非均衡模型参数,实证结果表明:①信贷供给小于信贷需求为32个季度,信贷供给大于信贷需求为15个季度,其中1997-2001年以及2005-2007年存在严重的供小于求现象;而2002-2004年及2008年3季度以来存在信贷供大于求现象,其中2009年第1季度信贷超额供给占观察到的实际信贷量的比例为18.37%;②中国信贷市场上银行信贷能力是影响信贷供给的重要变量,银行信贷能力越高,社会上的贷款就越多,而2009年以来的信贷大幅投放已经超过了银行的实际信贷能力。
In order to study fitting performance of supply and demand and the key factors that lead to credit aggregate misalignment in Chinese credit market,this paper adopts maximum likelihood approach to estimate a disequilibrium model using credit quarterly data from 1997Q1 - 2009Q2. Empirical results show：（1） There are 32 quarters when credit supply is smaller than credit demand,and 15 quarters that credit supply is larger than credit demand. Precisely speaking,the Chinese credit market can be divided into four phases,in year 1997 - 2001 and 2005 - 2007,credit supply is seriously smaller than credit demand; while credit supply is larger than credit demand in 2002 - 2004 and after the third quarter of 2008 in the credit market,the proportion of credit excess supply is about 18. 37% in the first quarter of 2009;（2） Bank lending capacity is a significant factor that can affect credit supply,the higher the bank lending capacity is,the more the credit supply is. Credit supply in 2009 is far over the banks＇ lending capacity.
出处
《统计研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第4期50-57,共8页
Statistical Research
关键词
最大似然估计
非均衡模型
信贷市场
Maximum likelihood estimation
Disequilibrium model
Credit market
