复杂河网平原地区的防洪调度决策——基于洪水灾害时空模拟的西洞庭湖冲柳地区案例研究

Decision of flood dispatch in complex river network area:a spatiotemporal simulation-based case study of Congliu area,west Dongting Lake

长江中下游大部分复杂河网平原地区的防洪调度决策由于缺乏全面准确的灾害预测手段而一直处于过度依赖经验调度的局面。这类调度手段适应性和操作性较强,但缺乏准确性和时效性,特别是存在着资源的极大浪费和极端条件下的洪水溢出情况。提出了从洪灾风险出发,通过运用ERDAS,Damage Calculator等模型相关模块,在GIS环境下对复杂河网平原地区进行洪水灾害的时间和空间动态模拟,预测和分析区域内各种条件下的洪灾风险时空分布,在此基础上计算洪水优化调度分洪序列,并最终制定针对性的防洪调度决策。研究结果表明,以洪水灾害风险为依据,在对区域洪水进行时空动态模拟基础上形成的防洪调度方法能够更有针对性地解决或缓解复杂河网平原地区特大洪水时期的分洪限洪问题,降低洪灾损失。

The flood dispatch in complex river network areas of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River are dependent more on experience because of lack of accurate damage prediction methods. Some of them have the advantages of high adaptability and operability, however, are lack of accuracy and time effectiveness, especially in extraordinary climate conditions. This article uses the modules of ERDAS and Damage Calculator in GIS platform to simulate the flood damage in Chongliu area, predicts spatiotemporal distribution of flood risk and makes optimum dispatch scheme for the complex river networks area. The study shows that the flood dispatch scheme based on dynamic spatiotemporal simulation and analysis can not only treat flood in these areas well, but also are more efficient in flood disaster reduction.