中国高温致灾危险性时空格局预估

Pre-estimation of spatiotemporal pattern of extreme heat hazard in China

应用PRECIS模式模拟的气候情景数据,选取高温日数和热浪日数两个指标,对IPCC SRESB2情景下未来我国高温致灾危险性时空格局进行了预估。结果表明:在近期(2011-2040)、中期(2041-2070)和远期(2071-2100),全国年均高温日数从基准时段(1961-1990)的10.2d将分别增加到17.3d,22.6d和28.4d,年均热浪日数从基准时段的11.5d分别增加到22.6d,30.6d和39.0d;除了青藏高原,全国大部分地区的高温致灾危险性等级均有不同程度的提高,其中高温致灾危险性等级高于4级(包括4级)的地区在基准时段仅占全国总面积的3.8%,在近期、中期和远期将分别扩展到全国总面积的29.9%,51.3%和63.0%。

In this paper, two indices i.e. hot days and heat-wave days were selected to assess the spatial patterns of extreme heat hazard over China in recent （1961 -1990） and future （2011 -2100） periods under the IPCC SRES B2 emission scenario based on the PRECIS climate model system. The results show that the annual average hot days over China in the near-term （ 2011 - 2040 ）, mid-term （ 204 1 - 2070 ） and long-term （ 2071 - 2100） of the future will increase from 10.2 d in reference period（ 1961 - 1990） to 17.3 d, 22.6 d and 28.4 d, and the annual average heat-wave days will increase from 11.5 d in reference period（ 1961 -1990） to 22.6 d, 30.6 d and 39.0 d, respectively. The extreme heat hazard in most areas of all the country will become higher to some extent except for Tibetan Plateau, and the percentage of area with extreme heat hazard grade higher than 4 （ including grade 4） in the near-term, mid-term and long-term will extend from 3.8% in reference period to 29.9%, 51.3% and 63. 0%, respectively.