上海暴雨灾害的系统特征与脆弱性分析

Analysis of system characteristics and vulnerability of rainstorm hazards in Shanghai

利用近30年暴雨和灾害资料,对上海城市系统受暴雨灾害影响下的暴露程度和敏感性等进行了动态分析,得出了该系统受暴雨灾害的脆弱性演化特征.研究结果表明,上海近30年来暴雨的数量和强度均有明显增加趋势,城市多强暴雨天气增加了城市内涝灾害的危险程度.低强度暴雨造成的城市水情灾害影响已很小,但极端强度暴雨仍构成严重的威胁.在城市建设发展过程中,地面排水能力的设计和提高、旧区改造和房屋建筑标准的提高等社会系统的变迁,会影响不同暴雨类型所造成的灾害程度与脆弱性;而城市在发展中又会出现新的薄弱和危险区域.因此,必须对灾害脆弱性进行动态分析和评估.

Based on nearly 30 years rainstorm data,this paper did dynamic research on the exposure,vulnerability of the Shanghai urban system under the impact of rainstorms.Under the rainstorm environment,the evolution process characteristic of the system was also studied.The result showed that the amount and the intensity of rainstorm indicate a significantly increasing tendency in recent 30 years;the rainstorm increased the hazard of urban waterlogging.While the impact of urban flood disaster caused by low intensity rainstorm is slight,extreme rainstorms still bring great threat to the city.In urban construction and development process,social system change,such as the design and the improvement of drainage capacity,rebuilding of old district and the improvement of housing standards,reduced urban waterlogging hazards and vulnerabilities.However,with the development of the urban area,new weak and hazardous regions emerge,thus it is necessary to contnue doing dynamic analysis on the disaster vulnerability of the system.