中国农村经济制度变迁与农业周期性增长分析

Analysis Between Rural Economic Institution Change and Agricultural Periodic Growth

农业增长除受到基本投入要素的影响,还受制度因素的影响。对于制度因素对农业增长的影响的研究,大多文献是从定性的角度分析。本文运用计量经济学和统计方法,通过对1978-2007年总体和不同阶段农业增长与农村土地制度、价格制度、财政制度和税费制度进行理论和实证分析,探讨制度变迁对农业生产总值增长的推动作用。文章通过分析发现,我国农业在要素投入并没有周期性变化的情况下,农业总产值增长率却呈现一定的周期性。为了探究农业周期性增长的原因,本文结合我国农村经济制度变迁的路径和农业总产值指数变化的特点,将改革开放以来我国农业增长分为三个阶段进行分析,同时根据Griliches生产函数构造计量分析模型。通过分析发现,正是由于不同阶段农村土地制度、价格制度、财政制度和税费制度的变迁,导致农业生产总值增长率周期性起伏。因此,制度变迁是改革开放后中国农业经济增长的内在决定性因素。

Agricultural growth is affected by the basic input factors and the institutional factors. Most literature analyzes the influence of institutional factors to agricultural growth using the qualitative method, but this article uses the econometrics and statistics methods. Through the emprical and theoretical analysis of the overall and periodic rural land institution, price institution, financial institution and tax institution, the article revealed that the change of institution has an important impact on agricultural growth. The article finds out that in the circumstance of the no periodic change for input factors,China agricultural growth rate changes periodicly. In order to explore the reason of periodic change, according to the path of China economic institution change and the characteristics of agricultural growth rate, the article divides China＇s agriculture growth after 1978 into three periods, and at the same time, constructs the econometrics model according to Griliches product function. Because the change of rural land institution,price institution,financial institution and tax institution, agricultural growth rate changes in a periodically up-and-down trend. Therefore, the change of institution is an intrinsic determinant for agricultural economic growth after reform and opening up in 1978.