广东冬季水资源的预测和因子背景场分析

Forecasting of Winter Water Resources and Analysis of Predictors in Guangdong Province

为预报广东冬季水资源量,利用500hPa高度场和太平洋海温场作为气候变化的相关因子场,并应用了主分量逐步回归预测模型进行了计算。利用各标准化主分量的预测结果,按照主分量逐步回归模型进行回算得到预测场。结果表明,2004年和2006年预测结果与实况比较相似;2005年冬季水资源预测值和实测值分布相差较大。为了分析预测因子的影响,对进入广东冬季水资源场前4个主分量预测方程的因子进行分析,并对个别关键因子的背景场做了细致的研究。

Based on the principal component stepwise regression method, using the 500hpa height field and the sea surface temperature field as climatic correlation factors, the winter water resources in Guangdong were forecasted. The results show that the forecast of 2004-2006 the winter water resources are very close to the observations except for 2005.Then by analyzing the climatic background field of the key factors, the influence of the predictors was also discussed.