航空气象要素预报算法和个例研究

Forecasting Algorithm for Aviation Meteorological Factors and Case Study

介绍了颠簸、积冰、风切变航空气象要素的预报算法,其中对晴空颠簸采用L-P指数预报,对积冰的预报采用在经典积冰指数基础上计算VV指数预报,对风切变指数采用对垂直风切变和水平风切变以不同权重相加得到风切变指数的预报算法。实现了基于中尺度数值模式MM5产品的晴空颠簸、积冰、风切变的航空气象要素的预报,并对以上3种天气过程分别进行了典型个例分析,重点在于模式预报结果与实况天气的对比验证,结果表明中尺度数值模式对积冰、颠簸、风切变有一定预报能力。

Introducing the forecasting algorithm for aviation meteorological factors, L-P index was used in the clear air turbulence index forecasting, VV index was calculated based on classical icing index to forecast icing, wind shear index is calculated from the vertical wind shear and horizontal wind shear according to the sum of the weights. Then basing the above three kinds of typical weather cases analysis, the model forecast results were contrasted with observations. The results show that the meso-scale model have the forecasting capability of forecasting aviation meteorological factors.