青海湖地区草地绿期预报模式初步研究

Preliminary study on prediction of green period of grassland in Qinghai Lake region

草地生态景观是青海湖地区旅游资源的重要组成部分,草地绿期的开始与结束依赖于天然牧草的生长发育状况,而其与气象条件的变化紧密关联。为此,利用多年的牧草观测资料和气象资料,界定了青海湖地区草地绿期开始和结束时间,并建立了绿期开始和结束的预报模式,经比较分析,拟合结果较好,建立的模式能定性的预测出青海湖地区天然草地绿期开始和结束的时间。该结果可为青海湖地区旅游和草原管理部门合理规划利用草地生态旅游资源、安排客源、保护和改善生态以及实现草原经济的可持续发展提供参考依据。

The grassland ecosystem in Qinghai Lake region is an important component of tourism resources. The green period of grassland would affect its utilization and management, which closely depends on the weather conditions. The long term meteorological data were used to predict the start and end date of green period of grassland and the prediction model was established as well. The results predicted with prediction model fitted the real situation and could be used in grassland utilization and management.