变化环境下我国干旱灾害的综合应对

Reflections on integrated coping strategies for drought in China in changing environment

干旱是我国主要自然灾害之一,发生频率大,影响范围广,其不仅具有普遍性、季节性、连续性和地域性等多样特征,同时还影响着我国的粮食安全,以及水循环及其伴生水环境、水生态和水沙过程。因此,系统识别干旱成因,综合应对变化环境下的干旱,已成为我国经济社会发展过程中亟待解决的关键问题之一。我国干旱既受到全球气候变化的影响,也受到经济社会发展过程中非理性水土资源开发活动影响;同时,强调自然成因和以"危机管理"为主要范式的干旱应对方略也未能有效减缓干旱危害。进一步提出我国干旱综合应对在从"危机管理"向"风险管理"转变的同时,还应构建物理机制统一的水资源及伴生过程模拟平台和干旱风险评价指标体系,进而做出相应的应对策略。

The aim of this study was to analyze the cause and disaster of drought,account for the characteristic of drought,and discuss the integrated coping strategies for drought in china in changing environment.Drought was affected by climate change and human activity.It did not only affect the food security problem,but also influence hydrological cycle、water environment、 water ecology、sediment and so on.So the author suggests that the coping strategy should move from crisis management to risk management.With the use of drought warning and prediction model,we can construct evaluation architecture,and make the coping strategies effectively.