不同模型拟合奶牛泌乳曲线的效果分析

Effects Analysis of Fitting Lactation Curve in Different Models

收集921头荷斯坦牛1～5胎共2386胎次的第1～10泌乳月泌乳资料,选择Wood模型和多项式模型拟合奶牛泌乳曲线。结果,Wood模型对该奶牛群1～5胎(第1～10泌乳月)泌乳曲线的拟合精度R2偏低(0.8753～0.9791);剔除第1泌乳月,Wood模型拟合泌乳曲线(第2～10泌乳月)R2显著提高(0.8753～0.9791),拟合效果优秀。多项式模型对1～5胎(第1～10泌乳月)泌乳曲线进行拟合,R2都在0.90以上,拟合精度高,估计误差小。

To analyze the effects on Holstein lactation curve of different models, the milk yield of 1-10 milk months of 921 Holstein cows（1- 5 parities）was collected, the Wood＇ s model and the polynomial model were elected to fit the lactation curve of Holstein cows. The results showed that W of the Wood model fitting the lactation curve（1-10 milk months） of Holstein cows at 1-5 parities was on the low side（0.2019-0.4989）. If the data of first milk month was eliminated, the W of the Wood＇s model fitting the lactation curve（2-10 milk months）were all obviously enhanced, ranged from 0.8753 to 0.9791, and the fitting effect of the Wood model was excellent. Fitting the lactation curve（1-10 milk months）of Holstein cows at 1-5 parities by the polynomial model, the R^2s were all above 0.90, the fitting accuracy was high, and the error was low.