基于情景分析的城市规划资源环境问题研究——以天津滨海新区为例

A Scenario-based Study on Resource and Environmental Issues of Urban Plans:a Case Study of Tianjin Binhai New Area

本文利用情景分析预测城市规划可能产生的资源、环境影响,构建了以综合情景和分情景为基础、定性—定量相结合的情景分析模式,并应用于天津滨海新区发展及其未来能源问题的预测和评价。案例证明该模式能够很好的解决城市发展环境影响预测中的不确定性问题,评价城市规划的资源、环境影响,为制定预防、减缓的对策和措施提供支持,最终促进城市的可持续发展。

This paper applies scenario analysis to predicting the possible effects of urban plans on resources and the environment.A combined qualitative and quantitative scenario framework was established on the basis of integrated and subscenarios.This framework was employed in the prediction and assessment of urban development of Tianjin Binhai New Area and future energy issues in this area.The case demonstrates that the uncertainty that lies in predicting environmental impacts induced by urban development could be dealt with in the scenario analysis framework.Evaluating the impacts as well as proposing prevention and mitigation measures could also be finalized within this framework.To this end, it helps to direct the urban system to sustainable development.